India imports of Russian crude to decline temporarily

04 December 2025 Vortexa 

India’s crude imports rose by 220kbd m-o-m to 5.0mbd in November 2025, reaching a seasonal high and approaching the March 2025 record of 5.05mbd. The increase was driven primarily by a sharp rise in Russian crude discharges into India, which climbed 340kbd m-o-m to 1.80mbd. This report examines the drivers behind India’s surge in Russian crude arrivals and assesses the implications for mainstream crude demand and the forward curve.

Source: Vortexa

India crude/condensate imports with seasonal trends (bd)Refiners in India accelerated discharges of Russian barrels ahead of the 21 November wind‑down deadline, which restricts purchases from US‑sanctioned entities Rosneft and Lukoil. Utilising Vortexa's flows data, more Russian crude was discharged into terminals linked to India's NOCs — and to a lesser extent Reliance — last month. Refiners were strategically stockpiling the additional crude for future processing once sanctions were fully in effect, as the country's crude inventories rose by 6mb m-o-m in November.

Source: Vortexa

Russia crude arrivals into India by terminals linked to private companies and NOCs (mbd) In the near term, most refiners are likely to scale back Russian crude purchases following last month’s stock build. Nayara Energy stands out as the key exception. Russian crude imports into the refinery have rebounded since EU sanctions in July, and the plant is now almost entirely reliant on Russian supply. Crude imports have returned to levels before EU sanctions, while oil product exports remain subdued, indicating a pivot towards the domestic market. As a result, Nayara is positioned to be the least affected by the recent US sanctions and is expected to continue sourcing exclusively Russian barrels.

Nayara Energy refinery crude/condensate imports by grade )bars, LHS) and product exports (line, RHS) (kbd)

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