12 February 2026 Windward   A Structural Shift in Russia’s Shadow Fleet At least  120 falsely flagged, sanctioned tankers are likely to reflag to Russia’s registry in the coming months , as Western interdictions of stateless  shadow fleet  vessels accelerates a structural shift in Russia’s oil export logistics. All ships fit the profile and trading pattern of tankers that have already switched to Russia’s flag following a governance crackdown and  nine interdictions  of sanct

12 February 2026 ImportGenius   On January 13, United States President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Iran’s trading partners, an effort to further isolate that country amid widespread street protests. If that tariff is stacked atop existing ones for Iran’s largest trading partners, China and India, it would bring their respective tariff rates to 55% and 75%, respectively. Five days later the President announced an additional 10% tariff on eight European countries as

12 February 2026 Pole Star Global   This report analyses 29 Iranian-flagged crude oil tankers that are suspected of being part of the global shadow fleet. While not all the tankers are  sanctioned  we see significant gaps in AIS reporting or situations where the vessel has completely gone dark since December 15 (for the purposes of this paper we will refer to this as the Iranian  dark fleet ). December 15th is a significant date since it was 2 days after the capture of the fi

29 January 2026 Trade Data Monitor LLC   One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the same period in 2024. Here’s another angle: Washington’s efforts to crimp Beijing’s industrial sector have resulted in diminished U.S.-Ch

29 January 2026 VIZION In recent weeks, a growing number of shipping and logistics headlines have converged on the same conclusion: that the pre–Chinese New Year (CNY) cargo rush has already passed, or worse, failed to materialize altogether. Commentary has pointed to falling spot rates, failed general rate increases (GRIs), and increased blank sailings as evidence of weak demand heading into 2026. Some have gone as far as to suggest that the traditional seasonal surge is alr

29 January 2026 MDS Transmodal Ltd   Global scheduled container capacity reached 21.37 million TEU in January 2026 , up  0.3% month-on-month  and  7.0% year-on-year . Growth was driven by the  intra-Far East trade corridor , which accounted for  22.4% of total capacity , supported by vessel deliveries and redeployments. Although Suez transits have remained largely limited to ad-hoc sailings, the Ocean Alliance has signalled a shift by reinstating two Far East–North Europe/Med

15 January 2026 Vortexa China’s seaborne crude imports breach 12mbd for the first time China’s seaborne crude imports climbed to 12mbd in December 2025, marking a new record despite a not-fully-recovered domestic economy. More than 35mb (or ~1.1 mbd) of these arrivals flowed into onshore crude inventories, leaving adjusted refinery intake broadly flat month on month. China seaborne crude imports and 2025 scenario assuming zero observed stock changes (mbd) While over 12mb of

15 January 2026 AXSMarine Japan Emerges as the Leading Seaborne Corn Importer Japan ranked as the world’s top destination for seaborne Corn shipments throughout the first 11 months 2025. Between January and November, Japanese ports discharged more than 15.5 million metric tons of Corn, reflecting a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase. This marked the eighth consecutive year in which Japan’s imports exceeded 15 million metric tons, underscoring the stability of its demand prof

15 January 2026 Lloyd's List BOUYED by the role that the UK played in supporting the US seizure of shadow fleet tanker Marinera ( IMO: 9230880 ) last week, UK defence officials have been talking up the possibility of more imminent action against stateless shadow fleet* vessels. Defence officials have been briefing journalists that the UK is ready to step up action against the shadow fleet and separately told the BBC on Monday that a legal basis had been identified to allow t

18 December 2025 Trade Data Monitor LLC   After falling year-on-year in October, China’s exports rebounded in November enough that it is almost certain that for 2025, the country that was mired in poverty when you and I were born will become the first nation ever to record a trillion-dollar trade surplus. The number is just a number, but it’s a big one, and it’s sending shockwaves through boardrooms and national leadership offices across the globe. French president Emmanuel M

18 December 2025 E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd   Last week news broke that the G7 group of countries were considering removing the oil price cap, which was first implemented at the end of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The removal of the cap would see a full and unconditional ban on G7/EU companies providing maritime services to support Russian oil trade, in effect pushing Russian business entirely to the shadow fleet. Whether this is bullish or bearish for tanker

18 December 2025   Windward   Skipper  was not an outlier. It represented the dominant operating model of today’s dark fleet. Sanctioned in 2022 for its role in an oil-smuggling network tied to Iran and Hezbollah, the vessel continued operating by exploiting systemic weaknesses. It broadcast AIS data that later proved inconsistent with its true movements. At the time of the boarding,  Skipper’s  AIS placed the tanker more than 500 nautical miles away, off the coast of Guyana

04 December 2025 AXSMarine   Panamax Cargo Trends Highlight Shifts in Global Demand Panamax bulk carriers between 68K and 85K deadweight have transported more than 960 million metric tons of Dry Bulk commodities since the beginning of 2025. This represents a 4.6 percent year-over-year increase and puts the fleet on track to exceed the one billion metric ton threshold for a second consecutive year. Steam Coal remains the most commonly shipped commodity aboard Panamaxes in 2025

04 December 2025 Vortexa   India’s crude imports rose by 220kbd m-o-m to 5.0mbd in November 2025, reaching a seasonal high and approaching the March 2025 record of 5.05mbd. The increase was driven primarily by a sharp rise in Russian crude discharges into India, which climbed 340kbd m-o-m to 1.80mbd. This report examines the drivers behind India’s surge in Russian crude arrivals and assesses the implications for mainstream crude demand and the forward curve. Source: Vortexa I

04 December 2025 E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd Once again, negotiations are ongoing to end the war in Ukraine. Back in August we wrote the second iteration of this report, after President Trump and Putin’s first face to face meeting in the former’s second term. That meeting yielded little progress, however, the most recent push for peace has seemingly taken us closer to an end to the war in Ukraine than at any other point since its outset. Negotiations are ongoing, and the init

20 November 2025 Windward   Six sanctioned Russia-trading tankers are signaling that they are berthed at the Oman port of Duqm, amid an escalation in  deceptive shipping practices  in the area as key buyers in India and China pause or review oil purchases. The tankers, all part of  Russia’s sanctions-evading shadow fleet , are broadcasting Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals placing them at berths in Duqm, with five arriving between October 27 and November 11. They

20 November 2025 Vortexa   The dirty tanker market continues to ride strong momentum, supported by a  surge in oil on water ,  a divergence between laden and ballast speeds , and an uptick in long-haul voyages heading East. At the forefront of this strength are the VLCCs, which remain the clear leaders in the current market rally. VLCC utilisation now stands at around 57% — the highest level since 2020, when the price shock triggered a floating storage boom. Employment has be

20 November 2025 Trade Data Monitor The Chinese export juggernaut finally started to show the impact of protectionism and weaker Western consumer markets in October. A week after Presidents Trump and Xi settled a new trade deal that cut tariffs and put off their trade war for a year, China reported a 1.1% year-on-year drop in exports to $305.3 billion. To be sure, this is only one month. China has shown resiliency thus far in 2025, finding other markets as Washington puts up

06 November 2025 VIZION   The October 2025 U.S.–South Korea trade agreement marks a turning point in bilateral economic strategy. What began as tariff negotiations has evolved into a $350 billion industrial investment pact designed to stabilize foreign exchange markets, strengthen strategic industries, and align both economies across technology, shipbuilding, and defense supply chains. A Deal Built on Stability and Strategy Phased $350 Billion Investment Framework The agreeme

06 November 2025 Vortexa   Global seaborne crude exports remain at seasonally high levels in October despite a comedown from September levels, when global exports crossed ~45mbd. But who is putting these barrels out on water and -- in an oversupplied market -- who will be the first to tap out? As far as supply is concerned, OPEC-8 seaborne exports have been ramping up significantly over the past two months, while on the non-OPEC side, it is the Americas that have seen strong