26 March 2026 AXSMarine   “Diary of a Madman” is one of Ozzy Osbourne’s most iconic albums. The question in today’s market is whether what we are seeing is disorder, or something more calculated. Looking at recent flow patterns across Iran, Venezuela, and the broader Atlantic Basin, the evidence points less to chaos and more to preparation and re-routing. Iranian Crude Flows: Disruption Without Collapse AXSMarine data shows that Iranian crude exports have not collapsed despit

26 March 2026 Lloyd's List   The limited flow of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now sailing exclusively through an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-controlled corridor requiring specific clearance codes and an Iranian escort service. Since March 13, a total of 26 vessel transits through the strait have followed a route pre-approved under an IRGC “toll booth” system that requires the ship operators to submit to a vetting scheme. There have been no transits tra

26 March 2026 Vortexa   At first glance, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)’s 30-day waiver allowing imports of Iranian oil already on water appears to be a headline solution to the crude market’s supply panic. Combined with Russian barrels, the “additional” volumes potentially made accessible to mainstream buyers partially offset the losses seen in the first three weeks of the conflict. But how practical is it in reality? To answer that, it’s essential to under

12 March 2026 POTEN & PARTNERS The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in what the U.S. military dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”. Iran responded with massive missile and drone barrages targeting U.S. interests and allies in the region. The outbreak of hostilities had an immediate impact on oil prices and tanker freight rates. The Strait of Hormuz has become key focus of the world, since 20-21 million barrels of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products pass through th

12 March 2026 Vortexa   Qatar Energy’s force majeure declaration on LNG exports has put Asian buyers into a predicament of having to replace about a fifth of their contracted LNG supply (or a quarter when including spot imports).As the Iran-US war rages on with no imminent end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, news headlines have focused on the LNG volumes Qatar exports to Asia. However, the true extent of the supply disruption is assessed by the shar

12 March 2026 Lloyd's List   SHADOW fleet* vessels are dominating tanker and gas carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz as compliant tonnage — aside from several  Dynacom  tankers and less than a handful others — largely avoids the besieged waterway. About half of all tanker and gas carrier over 10,000 dwt that have transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1-8 were part of so-called shadow fleet, according to Lloyd’s List analysis, which included suspected dark tra

26 February 2026 Signal   Global VLCC fleet capacity is projected to expand more aggressively through 2028. Taken together, scheduled deliveries from all major shipbuilding countries imply  an average annual VLCC fleet growth rate of approximately 6% by 2028 , assuming the current orderbook is delivered as planned. TSOP Orderbook Insights Within this evolving environment,  Sinokor Merchant Marine (Sinokor) has expanded its VLCC commercial footprint, positioning itself as the

26 February 2026 Vortexa   In the wake of October 2025 Lukoil and Rosneft sanctions, Russia’s oil supply chain has come under  increasing strains . December 2025 – January 2026  seaborne crude oil exports out of Russia  (ex. CPC, KEBCO) averaged nearly 500kbd above the call for arrivals, following a robust export program amid growing compliance risk. On a seasonal basis, the difference in Russia’s seaborne crude exports between December 2025 (dataset seasonal maximum) and Dec

26 February 2026 E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd   It is likely that many people in the shipping industry were hoping we had seen the last of additional port tariffs in October, after the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) Section 301 tariffs targeting Chinese owned, operated or built ships were put on hold for a year, with China also lifting its own retaliatory measures. However, after causing havoc in 2025, the port fee saga has its latest instalment. On Friday the 13th of Februa

12 February 2026 Windward   A Structural Shift in Russia’s Shadow Fleet At least  120 falsely flagged, sanctioned tankers are likely to reflag to Russia’s registry in the coming months , as Western interdictions of stateless  shadow fleet  vessels accelerates a structural shift in Russia’s oil export logistics. All ships fit the profile and trading pattern of tankers that have already switched to Russia’s flag following a governance crackdown and  nine interdictions  of sanct

12 February 2026 ImportGenius   On January 13, United States President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Iran’s trading partners, an effort to further isolate that country amid widespread street protests. If that tariff is stacked atop existing ones for Iran’s largest trading partners, China and India, it would bring their respective tariff rates to 55% and 75%, respectively. Five days later the President announced an additional 10% tariff on eight European countries as

12 February 2026 Pole Star Global   This report analyses 29 Iranian-flagged crude oil tankers that are suspected of being part of the global shadow fleet. While not all the tankers are  sanctioned  we see significant gaps in AIS reporting or situations where the vessel has completely gone dark since December 15 (for the purposes of this paper we will refer to this as the Iranian  dark fleet ). December 15th is a significant date since it was 2 days after the capture of the fi

29 January 2026 Trade Data Monitor LLC   One way of looking at China’s trade economy in December and for the full 2025 year is its export surge, amplified by a weak currency, deflation at home, and inflation in most of the rest of the world. China pumped up total monthly exports 6.6% to $357.8 billion in December from $335.6 billion over the same period in 2024. Here’s another angle: Washington’s efforts to crimp Beijing’s industrial sector have resulted in diminished U.S.-Ch

29 January 2026 VIZION In recent weeks, a growing number of shipping and logistics headlines have converged on the same conclusion: that the pre–Chinese New Year (CNY) cargo rush has already passed, or worse, failed to materialize altogether. Commentary has pointed to falling spot rates, failed general rate increases (GRIs), and increased blank sailings as evidence of weak demand heading into 2026. Some have gone as far as to suggest that the traditional seasonal surge is alr

29 January 2026 MDS Transmodal Ltd   Global scheduled container capacity reached 21.37 million TEU in January 2026 , up  0.3% month-on-month  and  7.0% year-on-year . Growth was driven by the  intra-Far East trade corridor , which accounted for  22.4% of total capacity , supported by vessel deliveries and redeployments. Although Suez transits have remained largely limited to ad-hoc sailings, the Ocean Alliance has signalled a shift by reinstating two Far East–North Europe/Med

15 January 2026 Vortexa China’s seaborne crude imports breach 12mbd for the first time China’s seaborne crude imports climbed to 12mbd in December 2025, marking a new record despite a not-fully-recovered domestic economy. More than 35mb (or ~1.1 mbd) of these arrivals flowed into onshore crude inventories, leaving adjusted refinery intake broadly flat month on month. China seaborne crude imports and 2025 scenario assuming zero observed stock changes (mbd) While over 12mb of

15 January 2026 AXSMarine Japan Emerges as the Leading Seaborne Corn Importer Japan ranked as the world’s top destination for seaborne Corn shipments throughout the first 11 months 2025. Between January and November, Japanese ports discharged more than 15.5 million metric tons of Corn, reflecting a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase. This marked the eighth consecutive year in which Japan’s imports exceeded 15 million metric tons, underscoring the stability of its demand prof

15 January 2026 Lloyd's List BOUYED by the role that the UK played in supporting the US seizure of shadow fleet tanker Marinera ( IMO: 9230880 ) last week, UK defence officials have been talking up the possibility of more imminent action against stateless shadow fleet* vessels. Defence officials have been briefing journalists that the UK is ready to step up action against the shadow fleet and separately told the BBC on Monday that a legal basis had been identified to allow t

18 December 2025 Trade Data Monitor LLC   After falling year-on-year in October, China’s exports rebounded in November enough that it is almost certain that for 2025, the country that was mired in poverty when you and I were born will become the first nation ever to record a trillion-dollar trade surplus. The number is just a number, but it’s a big one, and it’s sending shockwaves through boardrooms and national leadership offices across the globe. French president Emmanuel M

18 December 2025 E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd   Last week news broke that the G7 group of countries were considering removing the oil price cap, which was first implemented at the end of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The removal of the cap would see a full and unconditional ban on G7/EU companies providing maritime services to support Russian oil trade, in effect pushing Russian business entirely to the shadow fleet. Whether this is bullish or bearish for tanker