S Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore vulnerable to lost Qatari LNG

12 March 2026 Vortexa 

Qatar Energy’s force majeure declaration on LNG exports has put Asian buyers into a predicament of having to replace about a fifth of their contracted LNG supply (or a quarter when including spot imports).As the Iran-US war rages on with no imminent end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, news headlines have focused on the LNG volumes Qatar exports to Asia. However, the true extent of the supply disruption is assessed by the share of Qatari LNG in each market’s total gas supply and gas’ share of their energy mix.

2025 LNG imports and contracted Qatar LNG volume by destination (mt, LHS) and share of Qatar LNG in destination's total LNG imports and gas supply (%, RHS) Note: Pakistan 2025 gas supply estimated from 2024 data. Gas supply in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan is almost entirely LNG Sources: Vortexa, Japan METI, Korea KESIS, Taiwan MOEA EA, China NBS and Customs, India PPAC, Petrobangla, Pakistan HDIP, Thailand MOE EPPO, JODI

Among Asian buyers, the South Asian economies are most exposed to Qatari LNG, with the emirate accounting for 45-99% of their LNG imports and around 20% of gas supply. However, domestic gas prices are heavily subsidized by their respective governments, so these markets are highly price-sensitive in their appetite for spot LNG. While India can partially offset the Qatari LNG shortfall with coal, gas-dependent Bangladesh and Pakistan have activated gas rationing measures amid a lack of alternative fuel sources and skyrocketing spot LNG prices.

Country/territory's energy mix by fuel type (%) and share of gas in power mix (%)Note: 2024 data for Japan and South Korea, 2023 data for others Source: IEA

Elsewhere, South Korea (via KOGAS), Taiwan (via CPC), and Singapore (via Shell after Pavilion Energy acquisition) rely on Qatari LNG for 15-35% of their total gas supply. These buyers’ exposure to the spot LNG market is likely to grow substantially because gas accounts for at least a quarter of the power mix in all three countries. In particular, Singapore generates 90% of its electricity from natural gas and has limited capacity to switch to coal or other fuels for power generation. The island imports all of its gas supply, of which close to 60% is from LNG and the remaining via pipelines from Malaysia and Indonesia.

Similarly, gas is Thailand’s primary power generation fuel (60% of power mix). However, Qatar accounts for just 6% of its total gas supply, primarily from a 2 mtpa term deal with PTT. This is equivalent to two to three conventional-sized LNG cargoes per month.

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