Hormuz crisis slashes VLCC volumes by 36% but voyages are longer
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
07 May 2026 Lloyd's List Intelligence
The very large crude carrier market has always been about tonne-miles, but never have the two variables in this equation swung so violently at the same time.
The “tonnes” carried aboard VLCCs are down sharply since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the “miles” are higher, as more Atlantic basin crude is loading for delivery to Asia.
Shifting flows on VLCCs
Global seaborne crude and condensate exports averaged 36.3m barrels per day in the eight weeks ending May 3, according to data from Vortexa. That is down 6.8m bpd or 16% versus the pre-war average, from January 2025-February 2026.
VLCCs, due to their high exposure to the Middle East Gulf, are down more than other crude tanker segments.
Global crude exports on VLCCs averaged 14.4m bpd over the past eight weeks, down 8.1m bpd or 36% versus prewar levels — the equivalent of four VLCC loads per day — while crude on non-VLCCs averaged 21.9m bpd, up 1.3m bpd or 6%.
Consequently, the VLCC share of seaborne crude exports has fallen to 40% amid the Hormuz crisis, versus 52% in January 2025-February 2026.
The counterbalances to these negatives: VLCCs trapped inside the strait and longer voyage distances have reduced effective capacity.
Sparta Commodities said that there are 58 VLCCs inside the strait; DHT chief executive Svein Moxnes Harfjeld put the tally at 57 during a conference call on Wednesday.
“Approximately 10% of the VLCC fleet is tied up, either waiting to exit the gulf or waiting to load from Saudi Arabia’s western export facility [Yanbu],” Harfjeld said.
Vortexa data shows the voyage distance upside.
VLCC export volumes in the Pacific basin, which includes the MEG, fell to 8.4m bpd during the past eight weeks, down 8.1m bpd or 49% versus the average in January 2025-February 2026.
Atlantic VLCC loadings averaged 6m bpd over the past two months, in line with prewar levels, although the trend in recent weeks is more positive.
In the week ending April 26, Atlantic exports on VLCCs average 8.1m bpd, courtesy of the release of US strategic petroleum reserves.
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