Why the “No Chinese New Year Rush” Narrative Doesn’t Match Shipping Data

29 January 2026 VIZION

In recent weeks, a growing number of shipping and logistics headlines have converged on the same conclusion: that the pre–Chinese New Year (CNY) cargo rush has already passed, or worse, failed to materialize altogether.

Commentary has pointed to falling spot rates, failed general rate increases (GRIs), and increased blank sailings as evidence of weak demand heading into 2026. Some have gone as far as to suggest that the traditional seasonal surge is already “exhausted.”

But when you look beyond spot pricing and focus on actual booking activity, the story looks very different.

Using forward-looking booking data from Vizion’s TradeView platform, early 2026 activity points not to a missing surge, but to a delayed one, driven by calendar timing, capacity dynamics, and how seasonal signals are being interpreted.

Why the Headlines Are Telling a Different Story

In recent weeks, several industry publications have pointed to falling spot rates, failed general rate increases (GRIs), and rising blank sailings as evidence that the pre–Chinese New Year rush has already passed or failed to materialize altogether. Recent industry commentary, including Drewry’s World Container Index weekly update, has characterized spot rate declines and increased blank sailings as signs of demand waning ahead of Chinese New Year. 1UP Cargo recently reported that container shipping rates have “pulled back after an early-year spike,” attributing the softness to weak demand despite approaching factory shutdowns. Coverage syndicated on gCaptain likewise described the unraveling of January’s rate rally as evidence of deteriorating market fundamentals and weakening demand.

These indicators are useful for understanding carrier pricing pressure, but they are not direct measures of physical cargo demand.

What Booking Data Is Actually Showing

Early January booking data already contradicts claims that demand has collapsed:

1. Week 2–Week 3 China export bookings averaged ~802K TEUs

   
   

2. That represents an 18.8% increase versus the same period in 2025

   
   

3. Week 3 reached ~827K TEUs, the highest Week 3 volume in the past seven years

Rather than signalling exhaustion, these figures point to early-stage momentum, the phase where booking activity typically begins to build ahead of factory shutdowns.

Week 1-3 Chinese export bookings (2018-2026)

The Critical Variable: Chinese New Year Timing

One of the most important and most overlooked factors in this year’s analysis is timing.

Chinese New Year falls on February 17, 2026 (Week 8), making it the latest CNY in seven years. Factory shutdowns are expected to span early February through mid-March, pushing the traditional disruption window later than many analysts are accounting for.

Historically, the strongest booking surges occur two to three weeks before CNY, which in 2026 corresponds to Weeks 6–7 (February 3–14), a window for which data is not yet fully available.

This makes claims that the rush has already “finished” premature.

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