The future of Guinea's position in global bauxite trade and its alumina ambition
- zarra6
- Aug 28
- 3 min read
28 August 2025 Kpler
In the first seven months of 2025, Guinea accounted for 73% of global seaborne bauxite exports, consolidating its position as the dominant force in international bauxite trade. However, we have identified some headwinds that might shake Guinea's supremacy and hamper the country's ambition to build bauxite refining capacity.
With new projects coming online and some expansion plans being put on the agenda elsewhere, Guinea's share in the global bauxite trade may peak soon.
Resource nationalism, domestic politics, and the ramp-up of the Simandou iron ore may cap Guinea's export capacity.
Guinea's alumina ambition might be hampered by infrastructure constraints, political and social stability concerns, and the global alumina oversupply.
Guinean bauxite exports and its share in global seaborne trade (Mt, %)
Will new capacity outside Guinea shake the country's dominant position in the bauxite trade?
In Australia, sustained investment in production capacity and plateauing domestic demand will drive modest growth in bauxite exports in the coming years. Rio Tinto commenced work on the Norman Creek access project at the Amrun bauxite mine on Cape York Peninsula in Q3 2025, an integral component of the broader Weipa operation expansion. Concurrently, early works and a definitive feasibility study have commenced for the Kangwinan project, which is intended to replace the retiring Gove and Andoom mines. These initiatives could raise Rio Tinto's output in Australia by at least 7 Mtpa and reinforce long-term production stability.
Metro Mining, the second-largest bauxite producer in Australia, could increase its annual shipment capacity from the current 6.50-7 Mtpa to 8 Mtpa, contingent upon the alleviation of barging bottlenecks and the successful execution of its expansion strategy.
Collectively, these developments may lift the Australian bauxite exports to above the 50 Mtpa mark by the end of this decade and consolidate its position as the world's second-largest bauxite exporter in the long term.
In Sierra Leone, the completion of Maforki Port in May 2025 marks a milestone in the country's bauxite exports. Following this, bauxite departures from the country reached a record high of 0.54 Mt in July, and are expected to surge to 5 Mt in the whole of 2025 and over 7 Mt in 2026. The country's total bauxite export capacity is on course to reach 8 Mtpa in 2025/2026 and double to 16 Mtpa by 2026/27 through successive expansion phases.
Elsewhere in Western Africa, Cameroon is set to join the bauxite export landscape by Q1 2026. The country's first bauxite project, Minim Martap, developed by Canyon Resources, is expected to reach a production capacity of 6 Mtpa, with potential to scale up to 10 Mtpa in the longer term.
Heavy Chinese investments in the expansion of existing projects and new mines are expected to boost annual bauxite exports from Guinea to over 200 Mt in 2028/2029. Meanwhile, production expansion or new projects in Australia, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, and other emerging exporters such as Guyana and Ghana are anticipated to elevate the seaborne export capacity outside Guinea to over 90 Mtpa by 2029/2030, up from around 60 Mtpa in 2024. While these volumes are unlikely to displace Guinea's pre-eminent position in global trade, they may constrain its market share to around or below 70%, effectively curbing the potential for further dominance and diversifying global supply routes.
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