Scrap The Cap

18 December 2025 E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd 

Last week news broke that the G7 group of countries were considering removing the oil price cap, which was first implemented at the end of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The removal of the cap would see a full and unconditional ban on G7/EU companies providing maritime services to support Russian oil trade, in effect pushing Russian business entirely to the shadow fleet. Whether this is bullish or bearish for tankers depends on a number of key factors.

It is understood that the British, European, and even American officials are promoting the idea.

Even without US involvement, a full maritime services ban could force almost all mainstream tanker owners from the Russian market. Indeed, back in September, the UK and the EU lowered the price cap to $47.60/bbl. The US refrained from joining the lower cap, however, given the importance of London in maritime insurance and the fact that many of the major lifters of Russian price cap oil are located in the EU, the de facto price cap globally became $47.60/bbl instead of the G7 official $60/bbl. Something similar is likely to happen in the event of a full maritime services ban, with it being very difficult for any mainstream shipping player to circumvent EU or UK restrictions. As such, it may not matter whether the US joins or not.

So, if a full maritime services ban is implemented, what might the impact be? Given the ban would force mainstream tanker owners to completely withdraw from Russian trade, one could argue that benchmark tanker rates could come under pressure given it would theoretically increase the number of tankers available for conventional trade. However, much would depend on how the buyers of Russian oil react. Generally, it is not considered a sanctions breach if a buyer uses non-sanctioned tankers and non-G7 services (finance, insurance brokerage, etc.) to transport Russian oil, regardless of the price paid. If Russia can access sufficient non-sanctioned tonnage and India and China remain major buyers of Russian oil, then the impact could be blunted.

Share of Russian crude exports on mainstream vs dark fleet (%)

The timing of the implementation is also key. It is understood that the measures could form part of the EU’s 20th sanctions package due early in 2026, although some reports suggest the measures could be approved as soon as next week. What is not clear, is how long the phase out period might be. When the price cap was lowered in September, the UK gave a 6-week wind down period. If the implementation period this time is equally short, then it may be tough for Russia to adjust supply chains in time. However, if a longer wind down period is given, then Russia will have time to expand its fleet. This in turn would fuel the S&P market for older tonnage, boosting asset prices for older ships. The migration of older tankers from the mainstream to shadow fleet could also help offset any negative impact from tankers leaving Russian trade and returning to conventional markets.

Overall, the measures are likely to shrink the addressable market for tanker owners who choose not to trade sanctioned cargoes. How negative that is, depends on whether this is balanced by the migration of ships to the shadow fleet. Likewise, if further sanctions pressure forces buyers of Russian crude to reduce their volumes, then we could see upside for mainstream tanker rates. Finally, all of this assumes a path to peace is not found, yet, with Trump pushing for peace by Christmas, some sort of deal cannot be ruled out either.

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