Tanker Fleet Rebounding: Revealing Latest Orderbook Trends
- rorykevinproud
- Apr 3
- 2 min read
03 April 2025 AXSMarine
The global tanker fleet orderbook has rebounded sharply from the historic low witnessed over 2020–2021. AXSMarine data shows that the overall tanker orderbook-to-existing-fleet ratio has climbed from under 5% to roughly 15–16%, indicating renewed confidence from owners. Several factors drive this trend, including major shifts in trade flows, an aging global fleet, and the strong appeal of modern tonnage equipped for future regulatory compliance. Changing sanctions' regimes and new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East have also boosted ton-mile demand, as oil and product shipments travel longer distances. In spite of these positive dynamics, questions remain about the balance between new vessel deliveries and demand. Macroeconomic risks and the impact of ongoing energy transition policies incur some uncertainty, making it crucial for stakeholders to track data-driven trends and plan fleet development strategies accordingly.
Historical context and market overview
From its previous peak in 2016 to the end of 2022, tanker newbuilding activity slowed dramatically, reaching a multi-decade low when the orderbook-to-fleet ratio dipped below 5%. Owners confronted weak freight markets and lingering doubts about future marine fuel technologies. AXSMarine data confirm a decisive turnaround since early 2023, with the combined crude and product tanker orderbook surging from roughly below 28m MT of deadweight to over 105m MT of deadweight by the end of 2024. This has propelled the ratio above 15%, underscoring the industry’s renewed willingness to invest after a period of caution. The present ordering wave was partly tied to sustained earnings in 2022, but there are also longer-term reasons for fleet renewal. Older units, including many built in the early 2000s, remain in service, often concentrated in sanctioned or "shadow" trades. While that phenomenon has prevented scrapping from rising significantly, the steady addition of more modern ships raises questions about overcapacity if supply overshoots the modest growth in global oil demand.
Crude Oil tankers: Trends and Outlook
Crude-focused segments such as VLCCs and Suezmaxes had seen contracting stalling during the depths of the pandemic. Owners were hesitant to order large crude carriers with uncertain demand and high building prices. Spot charter rates for crude tankers rebounded toward the end of 2022, fuelling a wave of fresh orders. The crude tanker orderbook now stands at about 12% of the current fleet, a significant rise from its low of just 3% in early 2023. Much of this expansion is a response to shifting oil trade patterns, including longer-haul routes for Russian crude to Asia and evolving OPEC+ supply adjustments. Another factor shaping the crude tanker market is the gradual enforcement of the IMO's EEXI and CII rules. Although these regulations have not yet forced widespread demolition, they have encouraged more eco-friendly designs and, in some cases, pushed high-emitting older tankers into slower speeds or specialized trades.
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