Iranian-Flagged Dark Fleet: Ecological Risk Assessment

12 February 2026 Pole Star Global 

This report analyses 29 Iranian-flagged crude oil tankers that are suspected of being part of the global shadow fleet. While not all the tankers are sanctioned we see significant gaps in AIS reporting or situations where the vessel has completely gone dark since December 15 (for the purposes of this paper we will refer to this as the Iranian dark fleet). December 15th is a significant date since it was 2 days after the capture of the first Venezuelan oil tanker by the United States. The analysis reveals significant ecological risks posed by aging vessels with substantial carrying capacity operating under reduced regulatory oversight and without Western insurance coverage.

CRITICAL FINDINGS

The combination of advanced vessel age, lack of Western insurance, and reduced maintenance standards under sanctions creates an elevated risk of catastrophic environmental damage with limited ability to hold countries, companies, or individuals responsible.

Fleet Composition

The Iranian-flagged component of the global shadow fleet consists of 29 crude oil tankers with a combined gross tonnage of 30.6 million tons and deadweight capacity of 6.75 million tons. This fleet represents a concentrated ecological risk due to several compounding factors: advanced vessel age, operation under sanctions constraints, lack of international insurance coverage, and potential gaps in maintenance and inspection protocols.

Visual Analysis

Figure 1 – Ecological Risk Assessment

Overall Fleet Risk Profile:

• All 29 vessels score Medium to High risk (no vessels below 50)

• 9 vessels (31%) are in the extreme risk category (score >75)

• Average ecological risk score: 73.4

Highest Risk Quadrant (Top-Right): 5 vessels combining old age (>20 years) + large capacity (>median tonnage):

1. ARMAN 114 – Score 94.0 | 29 years old | 156,880 GT | 300,579 DWT

2. HENNA – Score 83.3 | 23 years old | 160,930 GT | 299,242 DWT

3. HASNA – Score 83.3 | 23 years old | 160,930 GT | 299,229 DWT

4. DOVER – Score 83.3 | 23 years old | 160,576 GT | 296,977 DWT

5. DOWNY – Score 81.3 | 22 years old | 160,576 GT | 296,977 DWT

Combined threat from these 5 vessels alone:

• 799,892 gross tons

• 1.49 million DWT (~11.8 million barrels capacity)

• Could cause spill 12-13x larger than Exxon Valdez

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