09 January 2025 Tradeviews
ECONOMIC NEWS
UNCTAD latest Global Trade Update reported that global trade is poised to hit an all-time high of nearly $33 trillion in 2024, with a $1 trillion increase largely driven by a 7% rise in services trade. However, goods trade rose by a more meagre 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak. UNCTAD sees risks of rising trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical challenges casting uncertainty over the outlook for 2025.
The World Bank has raised its economic outlook for China despite an expected hike in US tariffs on imported goods when President-elect Trump takes office in January. It raised its China GDP estimate for 2024 to 4.9%, up from 4.8% in its June forecast, due to recent policy easing and near-term export strength. GDP growth in 2025 is now expected to be 4.5%, notably higher than its earlier forecast of 4.1%. The bank anticipates that slower household income growth and the negative wealth effect from lower home prices to weigh on Chinese consumption in 2025.
STEEL
Brazilian miner Vale said it expects to produce between 325 million and 335 million tonnes of iron ore in 2025, following an expected output of around 328 million tonnes in 2024. The company also expects to increase iron ore production to between 340 million and 360 million tonnes in 2026 and to be producing around 360 million tonnes in 2030.
The state-run China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said it estimates China’s steel demand to drop 4.4% in 2024 from a year earlier and to fall a further 1.5% in 2025. Steel consumption was forecast to be 863 million tonnes in 2024 and 850 million tonnes in 2025.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s crude steel production in November fell to 78.4 million tonnes compared to 81.88 million tonnes in October However, the fall was only just over 1% when measured on an average daily output basis. November’s output was up 2.5% from a year earlier but output in the first 11 months of 2024 was down 2.7% year-on-year.
POWER COAL
The IEA’s Coal 2024 report notes that global coal demand reached a new high of 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024 but is expected to level off through to 2027 as a surge in renewable power helps meet soaring demand for electricity, including in the largest consumer, China. However, weather factors, particularly in China, will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. In most advanced economies, coal demand has already peaked. In some emerging economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, demand for coal is still increasing, mainly in the power sector but also in industrial use. International trade in coal in 2024 is expected to reach a record 1.55 billion tonnes. However, looking forward, global trade volumes are set to shrink with thermal coal seeing the biggest decline. Asia remains the centre of international coal trade with all the largest importing countries plus Indonesia and Australia included among the largest exporters.
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