Does Peak Season Still Exist? A 10-Year Look at Shipping Seasonality Amid Black Swan Disruptions

17 July 2025 VIZION 

Global container shipping has undergone a structural shift over the past decade, reshaping not only how goods move but when they move. What was once a reliably seasonal industry, marked by predictable summer and fall surges ahead of back-to-school and holiday cycles, has become increasingly erratic.

10 years of container booking data across three key lanes: global bookings, U.S. imports, and China-to-U.S. trade. The analysis reveals a clear pattern: the traditional “peak season” has eroded under the weight of black swan disruptions including COVID-19, U.S.–China tariffs, port congestion, equipment shortages, and geopolitical rerouting.

A Decade of Seasonality and Its Undoing (Global Bookings)

From 2015 through 2019, global container bookings followed a recognizable seasonal cycle. Weekly booking volumes rose steadily through the second quarter, peaking between Weeks 28 and 36, before tapering off toward the end of the year. This pattern reflected the rhythm of global supply chains, driven by manufacturing lead times in Asia, pre-holiday restocking cycles in Europe and North America, and synchronized demand from major retail markets.

In 2020, that rhythm fractured. Early in the year, bookings dipped sharply as COVID-19 lockdowns shuttered factories in China and halted global trade flows. By mid-year, however, demand rebounded and inventories were replenished, leading to a surge in bookings. Unlike pre-pandemic years where peaks were sharp and time-bound, 2020's elevated volume stretched from late Q2 through Q4, with weekly bookings exceeding 2 million TEUs for much of the second half.

In 2021, global bookings hit record highs. Volumes consistently surpassed 2.2 million TEUs per week from Week 19 through Week 40. The usual seasonal rise and fall was replaced by a prolonged, elevated plateau. Carriers added capacity, shippers advanced orders, and supply chains strained under continuous pressure. It was the last year global container flows followed a clear high-volume trajectory.

Since then, the shape of the curve has changed. Bookings declined in 2022 but retained some residual seasonal movement. By 2023 and 2024, however, seasonality had largely disappeared. Booking volumes flattened, staying mostly between 1.6 million and 1.9 million TEUs per week throughout the year. The once-clear peak period faded, replaced by a more evenly distributed demand - a trend that continues into 2025.

This flattening suggests a broader structural shift. Seasonal cycles once shaped the flow of goods. Now, disruption, inventory shifts, and sourcing diversification define it.

Global container bookings peaked in 2021 — and never found a new rhythm

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