China’s soybean imports pivot south

24 October 2025 Signal 

U.S. shipments vanish in September as South America fills the gap

China’s soybean supply chain took a sharp turn south in September.

• No U.S.-origin soybeans were discharged at Chinese ports, the first zero month since 2018, as buyers leaned heavily on Brazil and Argentina.

  
  

• Signal Ocean cargo flow analytics confirm U.S. volumes collapsing while South American loadings surged, coinciding with a jump in CBOT soybean futures on renewed U.S.–China deal hopes.

U.S. cargo flows to China - collapse by September 2025

Shipments reached a peak of 4.1 Mt in January and decreased to 2.7 Mt in February, then fell to zero in September 2025; 2025 clearly differs from 2024, confirming customs reports of no U.S. soybean arrivals.

Source: Signal Ocean

Argentina steps up - export incentives spark surge

From August to October 2025, shipments experienced a significant increase. September saw nearly 1.5 Mt, approximately double the 2024 figures, largely due to temporary export-tax relief and a weakened peso, which enhanced export competitiveness. October volumes climbed even higher to about 2.3 Mt, marking a 64% month-on-month rise and over 320% year-on-year growth.

Source: Signal Ocean

Brazil maintains dominance

Sustained high volumes from April to August (10–11 Mt/month) and elevated September shipments versus previous years highlight Brazil’s extended export window and robust port capacity, though the 22.8% MoM decline in September reflects Argentina’s seasonal return to the export market.

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