Bracing for the impact of a Brazil trade war
- zarra6
- Jul 31
- 2 min read
31 July 2025 ImportGenius.com
From morning coffee to BBQ burgers to wastewater treatment, the blanket 50% tariff on Brazilian goods will hit the US economy —and its households
With trade talks between the United States and Brazil at a standstill, it’s expected that US President Donald Trump’s threatened 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports will come into effect this Friday, August 1. And when it does, it will have a vast array of impacts on the American economy.
While the public focus of the trade dispute has been on Brazil’s coffee imports, coffee beans do not tell the whole story of Brazil-U.S. trade.
Brazil provides America with whole and processed foods, manufactured goods, raw ores, petroleum products, chemicals, and complex machinery — essentially, everything from raw coffee beans to finished airplanes. And because the threatened 50% tariffs on Brazil are higher than on most other countries, American firms that rely on Brazilian imports will need to consider alternative sources to minimize their tariff exposure. This edition of The Manifest shines a spotlight on select Brazilian imports and the potential impact of 50% tariffs.
Brazil’s top U.S. import: oil and gas
Crude oil is Brazil’s most valuable export to the U.S., valued at nearly $6.5 billion in 2024. Brazil also consistently ranks among the top 10 countries in the world for petroleum exports to the United States. Though Brazilian crude oil imports account for less than 5% of America’s total imports, it is still a substantial volume — one that America’s top energy companies rely upon.
Marathon, whose subsidiaries account for nearly half of all Brazilian crude imports to the United States, operates more than 7,000 gas stations across the country. No matter which company is doing the importing, a 50% cost increase in Brazilian crude will likely lead them to seek out new suppliers.
Beyond coffee: frozen beef and cane sugar
Coffee is Brazil’s second most valuable import to the United States, valued at more than $1.8 billion in 2024. Folger’s, the leading supermarket coffee brand, is the country’s single largest purchaser of Brazilian coffee beans, relying on the South American country for more than 60% of its supply. Folger’s is also among the largest customers to the Port of New Orleans, where the company roasts its beans, accounting for nearly 10% of total TEU landings — demonstrating the many potential ripple effects of a 50% tariff.
But coffee is not the only consumer product imported from Brazil.. Almost every American who eats beef has likely consumed Brazilian beef. America imported more than $896 million worth of Brazilian beef in 2024, accounting for nearly a quarter of all beef imports.
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