Ageing VLCCs are an unlikely source of support to market for now, but could be squeezed out in the near future
- rorykevinproud
- May 29
- 2 min read
29 May 2025 Vortexa
The utilisation of ageing VLCCs is supportive of crude freight for now, but they will soon be squeezed out of the mainstream market into scrapping or servicing opaque flows.
16% of the global mainstream-trading VLCC fleet is aged 18 years and above, and the utilisation of ageing vessels in the mainstream market has been steadily rising. This tonnage has been crucial in servicing crude flows, particularly in the Pacific Basin. With more new-builds scheduled for deliveries and pick-up in scrapping activities over the next few years, these aged VLCCs would be main candidates for scrapping, or new-joiners to the sanctioned trade if all sanctions regimes remain status-quo.
114 VLCCs aged 18 and above continue to be active* in mainstream trade**
The operational performance of ageing VLCCs (18+) is usually inferior to younger vessels, which is one of the key reasons why major industry players maintain chartering policies that favour younger vessels. For instance, older vessels sail at lower average speeds of about 11%, compared to younger VLCCs aged <15 years leading to higher turnaround times, hence limiting vessel availability. In addition, ageing vessels typically require more frequent maintenance, including drydocking every 2.5 years beyond age 15 (Tankers International). Younger vessels could therefore benefit from the periods of shrinkage in effective vessel availability.
Utilisation of ageing vessels in mainstream* markets is continuously rising
However, the employability of ageing VLCCs have risen in recent years as shipowners of older vessels tend to offer into cargoes at discounted levels. 10% of the global active VLCC fleet last year comprised vessels aged over 18. Low VLCC deliveries in 2023 and 2024 (Braemar), combined with the growing prevalence of a multi-tiered fleet structure, had strengthened the appeal for vessels to join the opaque trade (Russia, Iran, Venezuela).
This diversion has helped ageing vessels maintain and grow their share in both the mainstream and opaque markets. Additionally, this is a reflection of the willingness of industry participants to hire older vessels in the face of constrained vessel supply.
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