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What is driving the changes in demand in Dry Cargo?

A post by Tradeviews, a specialist research and advisory business focused on the analysis of Maritime Trade Data.




Note: These bullet points summarize the forecasts and developments mentioned in the original report, available on request.


Steel Industry:


  • OECD estimates steelmaking capacity additions in 2023-2025 to total 166 million tonnes, leading to increased demand for 196 million tonnes of iron ore, 94 million tonnes of coking coal, and 58 million tonnes of scrap.

  • Capacity additions are concentrated in Asia, with blast furnaces accounting for 55%.

  • Concerns exist about excess capacity being pushed into world markets due to capacity additions in regions with stagnant or declining demand.

  • Europe is gradually replacing blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces and DRI projects alongside.

Power Coal:


  • China's raw coal production in May 2023 increased by 4.2% YoY.

  • India's domestic coal output in May 2023 rose by 7.1% YoY.

  • India extends the timeline for power plants operating on imported coal to run at full capacity until the end of September due to a severe heatwave.

  • Italy may shut down its coal-fired power stations in 2024 if gas prices remain low.

  • Philippines' Semirara Mining diversifies coal exports to Japan and reduces reliance on China.

Aluminium Industry:


  • Global primary aluminium production in May 2023 increased by 0.6% YoY, with China accounting for 59%.

  • Global alumina production rose to 11.918 million tonnes in May, up 1% MoM in terms of average daily output.

  • Rio Tinto plans to expand its "low-carbon" aluminium smelter in Quebec, Canada.

Agribulk:


  • USDA forecasts minor adjustments to 2022/23 export trade forecasts for wheat and coarse grains.

  • Weather patterns, including El Nino, threaten agricultural producers across Asia.

  • Australia's winter crop production is predicted to decline due to the El Nino weather pattern.

  • EU to phase out temporary restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed.

  • Flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine affects agriculture.

Fertilisers:


  • Angola's Cabinda Phosphate Fertiliser Plant will be constructed, fed by output from the Cacata Phosphate mine.

  • NeuRizer advances plans for a 1 million tonne/year urea plant in South Australia.

  • Bangladesh imports 180,000 tons of muriate of potash from Russia.

  • OCP plans to invest $7 billion in an ammonia plant in Morocco using green hydrogen.

  • Koch Fertilizer revamps its Fort Dodge plant in Iowa, increasing ammonia production capacity.

Forest Products:


  • Australia resumes softwood log exports to China after the ban due to bark beetle infestation.

  • Canada experiences a severe spring wildfire season, impacting sawmills and raising lumber prices.

  • German sawmill industry reports poor business conditions and significant production reductions.

  • New Zealand strengthens forestry cooperation with China.

  • Viet Nam's wood exports decline due to falling demand in major markets.

Cement Industry:


  • Argentina's cement market contracts by 1.5% YoY in May 2023.

  • Brazil's cement market grows by 1.2% YoY in May 2023.

  • New cement plants commence production in Cambodia, Laos, and Ethiopia.

  • CMS Cement plans to expand clinker capacity in Malaysia.

  • BUA Cement secures loans to construct two new cement plants in Nigeria.

  • Heidelberg inaugurates a new cement plant in Indiana, USA.


Posted on July 14, 2023

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