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Understanding Global Freight Market Shifts

A post by Kpler

The global commodity shipping landscape is undergoing significant changes, and as a key player in the energy intelligence field, Kpler is at the forefront of tracking and analyzing these shifts. Here's a glance at the latest trends, focusing on the Russian and Greek markets.

Fewer Greek Loads from Russia

A decline in Greek owners loading clean and dirty products from Russia has led to a depression in rates for non-Russian loads. This has the potential to widen the two-tier freight market, resulting in more vessels being available for global load, and fewer from Russia.

Rising Diesel Prices and Market Shifts

The price of delivered diesel to ARA reached $122/bbl in the week beginning July 31st - the highest since the EU import ban on Russian refined products. This is leading to an altered market dynamic, with some clean tanker owners already shifting away from loading Russian refined products.

The Dirty Segment Mirror

A similar trend is observed in the dirty segment, with Greek owners avoiding Russian cargoes in the Black Sea and instead focusing on Kazakhstan CPC exports. This has pushed rates for these loads down and has had a profound impact on western Russian crude exports.

Implications for Freight

The change in Russian trade flows has significantly affected both the clean and dirty segments of freight. With Russian exports ton-miles of crude and refined products surging by 143% since 2021 (compared with 9% for the rest of the world), the ripple effect is being felt across the global tanker market.

Loosening Connection & Possible Repercussions

The recent decline in Greek owners loading Russian cargoes is loosening the connection between Russia and the rest of the market. If this disconnect continues to grow, it could result in a rise in the second-hand market for Greek ships.

G7 Stance and Future Considerations

The G7's current goal is to limit revenue without restricting trade. With no immediate signs of revising price caps, the continuing effect on freight rates may force a reevaluation of the existing policy.

Posted on August 18, 2023.


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