The 9 Biggest Geopolitical & Security Trends This Year

20 March 2025 Windward 

Expect the Unexpected…

Geopolitical instability and security threats are increasingly playing out at sea. From trade conflicts and chokepoint vulnerabilities, to hybrid warfare tactics and environmental shifts, government agencies face constant change and volatility. With 2025 off and running, the maritime domain remains a critical battleground where national security, economic stability, and global trade converge.

Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts The resurgence of “America First” policies and protectionist measures is altering global trade, which also changes geopolitics. President Trump’s proposed and enacted tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian imports have triggered diplomatic and economic reactions, leading to retaliatory trade barriers.

These policies could divert cargo flows away from traditional U.S. ports, increase operational costs for shipping companies, and drive consumer goods inflation. Some multi-national corporations are looking into shifting their supply chains in anticipation of trade disruptions, seeing Southeast Asia and Latin America as potential alternative manufacturing hubs. These adjustments take time, and in the short term, businesses will likely face delays, rising transportation costs, and regulatory uncertainty.

Vessels affiliated with companies in China conducting dark activity in the Baltic Sea (Source: Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform).

Countries frequently cement and maintain their connection via trade ties. The weakening of these ties inevitably undermines the relationship. A shift in traditional trade partners will likely cause ties to grow elsewhere, shifting the power dynamics.

Early indications of these shifts are often evident at sea. From March 2-9, for example, there was an anomalous increase in vessel meetings off Canada’s West Coast. Twenty vessels, all affiliated with companies in China, engaged in ship-to-ship operations. This was a 99% increase above the expected ten vessels – an all-time high!

Undersea Cable Security Risks

Four high-profile incidents targeted critical maritime infrastructure between November 2024 and February 2025 alone!

Undersea cables are the backbone of global communication and finance, transmitting over 99% of international data traffic. Gas and oil also flows through subterranean pipes. Despite their critical importance, these cables and pipes are increasingly at risk from sabotage, espionage, and accidental damage. The recent severing of Baltic Sea cables, suspected to be the work of Russian-affiliated vessels, has highlighted how vulnerable this infrastructure remains. Shadow fleet vessels have been observed loitering near undersea cables, raising alarms about their potential role in espionage and sabotage.

The security risks associated with undersea infrastructure are exacerbated by the lack of international regulations governing these assets. Unlike terrestrial infrastructure, which falls under national sovereignty, undersea cables cross international waters, creating jurisdictional challenges. Many government agencies are now turning to AI-powered risk detection and satellite surveillance to identify suspicious maritime behaviors that could indicate a threat to cable security.

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