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Russian product exports – short & long-term trends & challenges

12 April 2024 Vortexa


Key report takeaways:

  • Review of latest trends in Russian oil exports with a focus on products

  • Gasoil/diesel exports are inevitably set to fall

  • This is already a function of seasonal maintenance and rising domestic demand

  • Ukrainian drone attacks may aggravate the situation, but this is not a given on a year-on-year basis

  • A lot of Russian product is stuck at sea currently

  • Most pronounced for gasoil/diesel and Baltic exports

  • Increased scrutiny and awareness of sanctions may be a contributing factor

  • Review of long-term adjustments in Russian product exports and European (US) products flows

  • Look at diesel, light distillates, residual fuels

Russia’s total oil and product exports fall below seasonal norm since mid 2023; seasonal 0.5mbd product exports fall in the works




Any changes in Russian crude and product exports need to be assessed in the context of seasonality and longer-term averages







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