Oil prices shrug off US-Iran’s cat-and-mouse game over sanctions
- rorykevinproud
- Mar 20
- 2 min read
20 March 2025 Kpler
While the Trump administration imposes more sanctions on Iranian oil transport, Tehran continues to attract more vessels to join the high-risk but lucrative trade. Therefore, we don’t expect any significant decline in Iran’s crude exports in the near term.
The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 13 oil tankers and 17 trading firms for allegedly transporting Iranian oil, its third round of such measures since Trump took office in January as part of the ongoing maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. The new sanctions were introduced just a day after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, flatly rejected talks with the U.S. over a nuclear deal.
The fresh sanctions will undoubtedly further disrupt Iran’s oil exports, as the country has been grappling with insufficient shipping capacity after the U.S. blacklisted over 100 tankers since Q4 2024. However, the reaction in oil prices remains largely muted, suggesting that the market is sceptical about whether this same old tactic of targeting tankers can meaningfully curb Iranian exports.
Despite tougher U.S. sanctions, Iran’s crude oil exports surged to a whopping 1.82 mbd in February, the highest level since October 2018. In the meantime, China’s imports of Iranian crude reached at least 1.43 mbd, a level last seen in October 2024. Notably, among the February arrivals, two vessels—Hornet and Aventus I were on the OFAC list at the time they discharged cargoes at Huizhou and Huangze, signalling that the ports were willing to receive sanctioned vessels. Market insiders told Kpler that China’s General Administration of Customs has issued no directive on clearing cargoes from OFAC-listed tankers. Therefore, the decision to take the risk ultimately rests with local authorities.
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