Iran’s oil network matures under sanctions pressure
- zarra6
- Oct 9
- 2 min read
9 October 2025 Vortexa
When the UN’s snapback sanctions on Iran officially returned on September 27, many expected exports to falter. Instead, tankers kept loading, ships kept sailing and China — Iran’s top buyer — kept taking cargoes.
The result: Iran’s oil keeps moving, but through a tighter, more efficient shadow fleet that has quietly adapted despite renewed legal pressure.
What the UN snapback actually does
The snapback mechanism, part of UN Resolution 2231, reinstates prior UN sanctions if Iran breaches its nuclear commitments.
Triggered in August 2025 by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, it restored restrictions on arms, finance and shipping that were originally due to expire on October 18, 2025.
Now that the snapback has taken effect, these sanctions are effectively back in force - reactivating must of the UN’s pre-2016 sanctions framework.
Russia and China have rejected the move, and enforcement remains uneven, meaning the impact is legal, not logistical. While enforcement remains limited, the snapback restores a unified legal framework for future action — giving the US and E3 a stronger platform for coordinated secondary sanctions.
Flows stay high and predictable
Vortexa data shows Iran’s crude and condensate loadings ranged between 1.3–1.6 mbd since late 2023, with several peaks above 1.8 mbd in early 2025 — the highest since 2018.
Roughly 85–90% of those volumes head to China, driven by deep discounts and reported barter-style payment arrangements
A stabilised dark fleet
Beneath those volumes lies a network built on ship-to-ship (STS) transfers — the engine of Iran’s shadow trade.
Over the past three years, 82% of Iran–China voyages involved at least one STS operation, typically near Malaysia or Fujairah.
That system is no longer improvised — it’s optimised.
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