India crude imports to rebound in September and October
- zarra6
- Aug 28
- 2 min read
28 August 2025 Vortexa
India crude imports fall in August due to lower arrivals into Nayara Energy refinery. We expect crude flows into India to rise in September and October.
India's crude imports are projected to fall by 0.3mbd m-o-m to 4.3mbd in August. Based on 9-year seasonal trends, arrivals of crude into India are typically the lowest in August. Domestic demand for gasoline and diesel used in road transport and agriculture decreases amid the monsoon season which begins in June and peaks in July-August. As such, most refineries conduct planned maintenance and reduce crude throughput during this period.
The reason behind this year's decline is different. India's lower crude imports this month were mainly due to the decrease in flows into Nayara Energy's refinery. Analysing crude arrivals into India by port, it is evident that the major decline in arrivals occurred at Vadinar, where Nayara Energy's refinery oil terminals are located. In fact, crude imports into Vadinar have fallen steadily for two consecutive months since July.
Focusing on Vadinar port and selecting oil terminals linked to Nayara Energy, we see that crude arrivals into the refinery fell by 0.1mbd m-o-m in August. Imports of non-Russian crude completely ceased this month as mainstream vessels avoid calling at Nayara Energy refinery terminal. Meanwhile, imports of Urals crude into the refinery have risen slightly this month, as vessels plying the Russia-India trade route resume crude discharges after brief disruptions last month.
The overall drop in crude inflows impacted the refinery’s processing rates, resulting in a corresponding decrease in product exports. With the EU sanctions on Nayara Energy, the refinery will likely increase purchases of Russian crude in replacement of non-Russian barrels. Hence, we could see arrivals of crude into the refinery to rebound from August levels in the months ahead.
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