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How might this affect the Ship Building Markets?

We go back to a previous post by Christopher Palsson of Maritime-Insight

The relatively low dry bulk carrier fleet age gives a continued modest dwt removal forecast for 2023-2027. In dwt the total will be 44M dwt, plus 10%, whereof 14M dwt in 2027 alone. Given the many old smaller ships in the fleet the increase will be higher in numbers. Looking further ahead, all the ships delivered in 2009 and onwards will be on schedule for removals and thus the total removals will increase dramatically towards the end of this decade. This will impact the ordering of new ships.

In 2018-2022 the dry bulker fleet grew by 3.3% yearly measured in dwt capacity. The forecast for fleet growth in 2023-2027 stands at 3.2% yearly. The fastest growing segment will be the 60’-100’dwt segment (largely Ultramax, Panamax & Kamsarmax) with a yearly growth of 4.7% in average.

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What impact could this have on Shipping?

  1. Dry Bulk Shipping: The increased demand for iron ore, coking coal, and scrap in the steel industry may lead to higher volumes of dry bulk shipments 📈

  2. Shift in Trade Patterns: The diversification of coking coal sourcing by India or resumption of log exports from Australia to China, could result in shifts in trade patterns 🔄

  3. Regional Impact: Capacity additions in the steel industry, particularly in Asia, may increase intra-regional trade within Asia. This could impact the demand for vessels in other regions 🌍

  4. Environmental Considerations: The focus on decarbonization and green initiatives in the steel and cement industries may drive the demand for cleaner shipping options, such as vessels powered by alternative fuels ♻️

  5. Weather-Related Challenges: Weather patterns, such as the El Nino climate pattern, may impact agricultural production and subsequently affect the shipping of agribulk commodities 🌦️

Note: This is commentary by 

Posted on July 14, 2023


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