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Analyzing the Russia Risk Regime

This post is an excerpt from Windward’s latest Q3 Risks Report.


Russian Oil Exports – Direct Voyages


When comparing the overall number of direct voyages from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, it's clear that the volume of Russian oil being directly exported from Russia stayed more or less the same throughout the war and the developing sanctions. While the volume stayed the same, the destinations have changed quite drastically:


U.S./EU/UK


In Q2 2023, the average number of direct Russian oil exports was 32. This number dropped by 18% during Q3 2023. It seems like the volume of Russian oil to USA/EU/UK is continuously dropping, but has not yet completely stopped, even with the advanced sanctions posed.


Middle East/India


While Q2 2023 showed an increase in direct exports, Q3 marked a decrease to both destinations – a 14% and 10% decrease to the Middle East and India respectively.


LATAM


Q3 marked a new all-time high of direct export voyages to LATAM with a 30% increase. This is interesting, as we identified this continuous increase coming from one specific country – Brazil. Since the beginning of 2023, the number of direct voyages of Russian oil to Brazil has increased by 186%.



Tanker Voyages through the Bering Straits


In Q3 2023, an interesting trend emerged of both crude oil and oil products tankers leaving Russia through the Bering Straits, to China. 


While the passage through Bering is clearly subject to seasonality, when comparing Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, there is an increase of 50% in Straits passages by tankers coming from Russia.


In addition to the overall traffic increase in the area, in 2022 there was only one such voyage from Russia to China through the Bering Straits. In Q3 of 2023 there were 10 – an increase of 900%.


Refined Oil Exports – by Origin and Destination


The data indicates that following the oil products price cap, many Western destinations imported refined oil from countries known to import Russian crude oil throughout the war:


  • Refined oil exports from India to the EU increased by 100% after the oil product price cap in February 2023

  • In 2023, the average monthly number of refined oil exports from Turkey increased by 29% when compared to 2022 – 50% of exports are destined to the Middle East

  • Refined oil exports from Turkey to the Middle East increased by 37% after the oil products price cap in February 2023


For more information such as:


  • A Deep Dive into Deceptive Shipping Practices Involving Russian Vessels 🇷🇺

  • A Spotlight on Ship to Ship Operations 🚢↔️🚢

  • The Latest Hubs for Dark Activities 📍

  • Direct Cargo Exports from EU to Russia 🇪🇺➡️🇷🇺

  • The Growth and Destinations of the Gray/Dark Fleet 📈

Use this link to download the full report: Link Posted on October 26, 2023 from Windward

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