Shipbuilding Forecasts are analytical models and reports that project future ship construction activity over short, medium, and long-term. They’re created by combining industry expertise with the following datasets:

• Vessel characteristics (fleet age, replacement cycles)

• Macroeconomic indicators (GDP, industrial output)

• Trade flows and commodity demand

Forecasts are typically segmented by vessel type (tankers, bulkers, LNG, etc) and updated regularly to reflect changes in underlying economic and industry conditions. The modelling frameworks can also be used to assess port feasibility and infrastructure development scenarios.

Coverage

Forecasts cover the global shipbuilding market, with breakdowns by:

• Vessel class and size

• Geographic region (e.g. shipbuilding by country)

• End-use segment (e.g. energy, dry bulk, containerised trade)

Time horizons may span:

• Short term (1–2 years) – near-term delivery projections and order activity

• Medium term (3–5 years) – anticipated replacements and regulatory-driven builds

• Long term (5–15 years) – strategic fleet development aligned to global trade trends

Sources

Inputs are drawn from a wide array of structured and proprietary data:

• Global vessel characteristics datasets (age, emissions class, ship type)

• Economic indicators from multilateral institutions or national statistics bodies

• Trade data, including commodity-level flows and route dynamics

• Orderbook and shipyard capacity information

• Emissions and regulatory frameworks influencing fleet renewal

 Methodology

Forecasts use macroeconomic, trade, and vessel data to drive model outputs. Common approaches include:

• Regression and econometric modelling

• Scenario-based forecasting incorporating policy or demand shifts

• Replacement cycle modelling based on vessel age

• Commodity-driven fleet analysis, mapping expected trade to fleet requirements

• Updating outputs in line with new economic/geopolitical scenarios (e.g. COVID19 or a new US President)

  
  

Why This Data?

Shipbuilding forecasts support strategic planning, investment, and commercial decision-making across the maritime supply chain. The reports:

• Help equipment manufacturers, service providers, and ports anticipate future demand

• Enable long-term planning for emissions compliance, infrastructure investment, and technology deployment

• Provide a forward-looking view to balance against reactive datasets like the live orderbook

Benefits:

• Supports long-cycle strategic decisions in a capital-intensive industry

• Helps sellers to ships (OEMs, service providers, port infrastructure companies) target emerging growth areas

• Enables alignment of fleet renewal with trade and regulatory trends